Do police crackdowns disrupt drug cryptomarkets? a longitudinal analysis of the effects of Operation Onymous

In recent years, there has been a proliferation of online illicit markets where participants can purchase and sell a wide range of goods and services such as drugs, hacking services, and stolen financial information. Second-generation markets, known as cryptomarkets, provide a pseudo-anonymous platform from which to operate and have attracted the attention of researchers, regulators, and law enforcement. This paper focuses on the impact of police crackdowns on cryptomarkets, and more particularly on the impact of Operation Onymous, a large-scale police operation in November 2014 that targeted many cryptomarkets. Our results demonstrate that cryptomarket participants adapt to police operations and that the impact of Operation Onymous was limited in time and scope. Of particular interest is the finding that prices did not increase following Operation Onymous, even though many dealers retired shortly after it occurre

Le capital virtuel : entre compétition, survie et réputation

Les avancées technologiques liées à l’internet ont permis une démocratisation des outils de communication et une transformation des relations interpersonnelles. L’impact de ces changements s’est ressenti autant dans la sphère légitime que dans les marchés criminels. Ces derniers ont migré, au cours des dernières années, vers des plateformes en ligne qui leur permettent de mieux gérer les risques associés avec leurs activités illégales. Cette thèse s’intéresse à l’impact de l’internet sur la criminalité et sur l’adaptation des criminels à cet environnement virtuel. Ces derniers forment maintenant des communautés en ligne et gardent le contact entre eux à l’aide de salles de clavardage et de forums de discussions. Nous nous intéresserons dans cette thèse à trois formes particulières de crime soit la fraude de propriété intellectuelle (la scène des warez), le piratage d’ordinateurs (les botnets) ainsi que la fraude de données personnelles et financières (le carding). Chacune de ces formes de crime sera analysée à l’aide d’un article publié ou présentement en évaluation. L’article sur la scène des warez décrit l'organisation sociale ainsi que la distribution de la reconnaissance dans la communauté des pirates informatiques. Les systèmes de délinquance (Sutherland, 1947) et l’individualisme réseauté (Boase & Wellman, 2006) sont utilisés pour théoriser l'organisation sociale et la distribution de la reconnaissance dans la scène warez. L’article sur les botnets tente de comprendre la distribution de la réputation dans une communauté de criminels. En utilisant les données d’un forum de discussion où des botmasters louent et achètent des biens et services illégaux, cette recherche modélise les facteurs qui permettent d’augmenter le niveau de réputation de certains acteurs. Finalement l’article sur le carding mesure le lien entre la réputation telle que développée par Glückler & Armbrüster (2003) et la performance criminelle. Notre thèse démontre que l’internet a eu un effet transformateur sur la criminalité à six niveaux : 1) l’augmentation de la facilité à trouver des co-criminels; 2) l’augmentation de la compétition entre les criminels; 3) l’augmentation du nombre de victimes; 4) la diminution des risques d’arrestation; 5) l’augmentation du taux de réussite des criminels et; 6) les changements dans l’équilibre entre criminels, victimes et protecteurs. Elle nous permet également de démontrer l’importance de la réputation, le capital virtuel, dans les marchés criminels en ligne.Technological advances related to the Internet have led to a democratization of the tools of communication and transformation of interpersonal relationships. The impact of these changes is felt both in the legitimate sphere as well as in criminal markets. These markets have migrated in recent years to online platforms that allow them to better manage the risks associated with their illegal activities. This thesis focuses on the impact of the Internet on crime and criminal adaptation in this virtual environment. These individuals now form online communities and keep in touch with each other using chat rooms and forums. We focus in this thesis on three specific forms of crime: intellectual property fraud (the warez scene), the hacking of computers (botnets) and fraud of personal and financial data (carding). Each of these forms of crime will be analyzed in an article that has either been published or is currently under review. The article on the warez scene describes the social organization and the distribution of recognition in the hacker community. Crime behavior system (Sutherland, 1947) and networked individualism (Boase & Wellman, 2006) are used to theorize social organization and distribution of recognition in the warez scene. The article on botnets aims to understand the distribution of reputation in this community for offenders. Using data from a forum where botmasters rent and buy illegal goods and services, this research models the factors that increase the level of reputation of some actors. Finally the article on carding measures the link between reputation as developed by Glückler & Armbruster (2003) and criminal performance. Our thesis demonstrates that the Internet has had a transformative effect on crime at six levels: 1) increase of the ease of finding co-offenders; 2) increased competition between offenders; 3) increase in the number of victims; 4) decrease in the risk of arrest; 5) increasing the success rate of criminals and; 6) changes in the balance between offenders, victims and protecteurs. It also allows us to demonstrate the importance of reputation, the virtual capital, on online market criminals

Cryptomarkets and the Returns to Criminal Experience

Criminal capital theory suggests more experienced offenders receive higher returns from crime. Offenders who accrue skills over their criminal career are better able to minimize detection, increase profits, and navigate illegal markets. Yet shifts in the offending landscape to technologically-dependent crimes have led some to suggest that the skills necessary to be successful in conventional crimes no longer apply, meaning ‘traditional’ criminals may be left behind. The recent turn of drug vendors to online markets provides an opportunity to investigate whether ‘street smarts’ translate to success in technologically-dependent crimes. This study surveys 51 drug vendors on online drug markets to compare individuals who began their drug-selling career in physical drug markets with vendors whose onset began on digital platforms. The focus is on their criminal earnings while comparing the scope and management of their networks. The results inform potential spillover effects from offline drug-selling into online marketplaces

Online and offline determinants of drug trafficking across countries via cryptomarkets

Drug cryptomarkets are a significant development in the recent history of illicit drug markets. Dealers and buyers can now finalize transactions with people they have never met, who could be located anywhere across the globe. What factors shape the geography of international drug trafficking via these cryptomarkets? In our current study, we test the determinants of drug trafficking through cryptomarkets by using a mix of social network analysis and a new dataset composed of self-reported transactions. Our findings contribute to existing research by demonstrating that a country’s level of technological advancement increases the probability of forming trafficking connections on cryptomarkets. Additionally, we found that a country’s capacity to police cryptomarkets reduces the number of trafficking connections with other countries. We also observed that trafficking on cryptomarkets is more likely to occur between countries that are geographically close. In summary, our study highlights the need to consider both online and offline factors in research on cryptomarkets

Effect of restricting the legal supply of prescription opioids on buying through online illicit marketplaces: interrupted time series analysis

Objective: To examine the effect on the trade in opioids through online illicit markets (“cryptomarkets”) of the US Drug Enforcement Administration’s ruling in 2014 to reschedule hydrocodone combination products. Design: Interrupted time series analysis. Setting: 31 of the world’s largest cryptomarkets operating from October 2013 to July 2016. Main outcome measures: The proportion of total transactions, advertised and active listings for prescription opioids, prescription sedatives, prescription steroids, prescription stimulants, and illicit opioids, and the composition of the prescription opioid market between the US and elsewhere. Results: The sale of prescription opioids through US cryptomarkets increased after the schedule change, with no statistically significant changes in sales of prescription sedatives, prescription steroids, prescription stimulants, or illicit opioids. In July 2016 sales of opioids through US cryptomarkets represented 13.7% of all drug sales (95% confidence interval 11.5% to 16.0%) compared with a modelled estimate of 6.7% of all sales (3.7% to 9.6%) had the new schedule not been introduced. This corresponds to a 4 percentage point yearly increase in the amount of trade that prescription opioids represent in the US market, set against no corresponding changes for comparable products or for prescription opioids sold outside the US. This change was first observed for sales, and later observed for product availability. There was also a change in the composition of the prescription opioid market: fentanyl was the least purchased product during July to September 2014, then the second most frequently purchased by July 2016. Conclusions: The scheduling change in hydrocodone combination products coincided with a statistically significant, sustained increase in illicit trading of opioids through online US cryptomarkets. These changes were not observed for other drug groups or in other countries. A subsequent move was observed towards the purchase of more potent forms of prescription opioids, particularly oxycodone and fentanyl

The international darknet drugs trade - a regional analysis of cryptomarkets

This chapter presents a descriptive analysis of illicit drug trading conducted via cryptomarkets, ‘eBay’ style marketplaces operating on the darknet (Martin 2014a, 2014b). Over the past seven years, cryptomarkets have emerged as a significant new vector for the retail and delivery of illicit drugs. One of the least understood aspects of cryptomarket-facilitated drug trading concerns the location of vendors who use the darknet to trade illicit drugs across national borders. While previous quantitative papers in this area have noted the locations of vendors selling drugs on cryptomarkets (eg Christin 2013; Soska & Christin 2015), these previous studies have not differentiated between vendors who are prepared to sell drugs to international or domestic-only clientele. The aim of this research is to fill this gap in knowledge and determine which countries are the most active, in terms of both domestic-only and internationally oriented drug vendors, as well as which countries dominate the trade in particular drugs, specifically cannabis, ecstasy-type products, cocaine, methamphetamine and opioids

Les paradigmes de la revue Criminologie : auteurs, revues et disciplines qui ont marqué son histoire

Cet article vise à décrire les influences intellectuelles de la revue Criminologie. Pour ce faire, les 19 813 références faites par les articles publiés dans la revue Criminologie au cours des 40 dernières années sont analysées de manière à dégager l’influence qu’elles ont pu avoir sur les auteurs de la revue. Les auteurs, revues et disciplines les plus influents sont répertoriés et mis en relation avec les caractéristiques des articles qui les citent. Les résultats montrent que le savoir qui inspire les auteurs de la revue est très décentralisé : aucun auteur ou revue ne peut prétendre avoir un ascendant sur un nombre important d’auteurs de Criminologie. Les auteurs et les revues les plus cités sont ceux qui ont su se diversifier et retenir l’attention d’un large auditoire qui travaille avec des traditions de recherches différentes

The success rate of online illicit drug transactions during a global pandemic

Background and Aims In the months following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA; 2020) observed an increased use of cryptomarkets, which led them to question whether cryptomarkets constituted a more convenient channel via which to distribute illicit drugs without any in-person contact. However, as more countries' borders closed, the likelihood is that cryptomarkets have been negatively impacted. We aim to measure and understand the success rate of transactions on cryptomarkets during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, through recourse to self-reported data that documents the outcome of cryptomarket transactions. Methods To collect self-reported data on cryptomarket transactions, we launched a platform where participants can enter information about their prior activities on cryptomarkets. The sample consists of 591 valid self-reports that were received between January 1st, 2020 and August 21st, 2020. Results The number of unsuccessful transactions increased concurrently with the global spread of the pandemic. Both the international and inter-continental nature of the transactions and the severity of the crisis in the vendor's country are significantly associated with delivery failure. Conclusions Drug cryptomarkets may have been disrupted due to the pandemic. The results lead to two opposing explanations for unsuccessful transactions. One explanation for the lower success rate is the inability of drug dealers to deliver on past promises that were made in good faith, while the second points towards opportunistic and abusive behaviour by drug dealers

Potentiel criminalistique de l'étude du trafic de drogues au Canada à partir des données collectées sur les cryptomarchés

Cryptomarkets represent a new innovation for illegal goods trafficking, where drugs are predominantly found. After an overview of the features these sites offer, to understand the virtual world in which users operate, a critical analysis of existing criminological studies suggests a forensic support to better understand how to relate this world essentially described by its virtual data, to reality. A descriptive analysis of Canadian market data is performed to depict an overall picture of drug sales and to explore a strategy targeting the most active sellers. Finally, the use of drug profiling as a way to obtain objective empirical data is discussed, as a means of offsetting uncertainty about virtual data. This article is part of a process of connection-making between criminal sciences, criminology, and forensic science, not limited to the criminalization of prohibited practices, but also to the understanding of phenomena and criminal networks for the purpose of developing efficient strategies for monitoring and neutralizing such threats. © 2016 Canadian Society of Forensic Science